A working paper produced by an economist within the IMF recently warned about possible unintended consequences of regulations "aimed at financial stability" that focus on "building equity and reducing leverage at large banks/dealers."
Here is an abstract to the work, by Manmohan Singh.
As you'll see if you visit that page, those of us who allude to the existence of this paper are sternly warned that it "should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF." It represents the views of Mr Singh alone.
Coincidentally, Mr Singh has the same name, first and last, as the current prime minister of India. This has fueled conspiracy theories about the prime minister as a "world bank/IMF agent".
The name, though, is the only connection. The IMF economist didn't leave that employment to become PM of India! He is still there, and this paper bears a quite recent release date as if to illustrate the point.
At any rate, the paper appears to me to be sound work and I hope it draws a wide audience.
Showing posts with label India. Show all posts
Showing posts with label India. Show all posts
07 January 2012
31 December 2011
Top Financial Stories 2011
I generally ask myself at this time of year what were the biggest stories of the past twelve months, in business/financial news.
By "stories," I don't mean themes, such as "Digital Revolution" or "EU unraveling." I mean stories, such as one might have seen in a particular newspaper on some specific day. Of course, I choose the ones I do largely because they illustrate an important theme, and in the list below (an innovation this year) I'll spell out and italicize the theme. Yet the theme itself isn't the story.
Further, I don't rank them, as in a top ten list. I assign one top story to each of the twelve months.
All that said, here is this year's list.
January: Isolating Iran. After the Central Bank of India, under pressure, withdraws from the Asian Clearing Union (which had been a crucial conduit for payments to Iran for petroleum), Indian companies that import oil from Iran scramble to find another way to send their payments and keep the flow going. Their substitute arrangement involved payments through the Hamburg, Germany based EIH Bank. The isolation of Iran would become a bigger theme for many industrialized nations later in the year, but we may as well use this as the kick-off.
February: food versus fuel. The US Department of Agriculture announces deregulation of one strain of genetically modified corn -- a strain designed for use as ethanol, the gasoline substitute. This announcement feeds into several ongoing stories -- one of them is the widening perception of the failure of ethanol (at least the traditional "first generation" sort) as an instrument of policy.
March: Banking for the poor. The central bank in Bengaldesh dials up the conflict over microfinance, ordering that the Grameen Bank cut its ties with its founder, Yunus. Arguments in that country's high court Monday, March 7.
April: Nuclear power. Continuing crisis at Japan's Fukushima I nuclear power plant forces advocates of nuclear power generation world-wide onto the defensive. On April 11, Japan's Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency rated the disaster as a "major accident" or a level 7 event on an internationally recognized scale.
May: Exchange consolidation. Nymex OMX Group and the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) withdraw their hostile bid for NYSE Euronext, apparently leaving a clear path for NYSE's friendly merger with Deutsche Boerse.
June: Political scandal. Oops. Time reporter Michael Grunwald writes this month, "reports of Solyndra's death have been greatly exaggerated." But they weren't. The company, an Obama administrration favorite, would file for bankruptcy two months later.
July: Digital revolution. Bankruptcy of famed bookstore chain Borders turns into a liquidation proceeding as re-org plans fall apart. Bricks-and-mortars retailing takes another in a series of hits.
August. Fiscal policy. US Congress and President seek to resolve long-running debt-ceiling soap opera. S&P downgrade of US Treasury debt. End up just perpetuating the soap opera.
September: Banking. UBS Rogue trader Kweku Adoboli arrested, September 15, 3:30 AM London time.
October: Allegations of naked-shorting conspiracy and pushback. Ali Nazerali brings a libel suit in Canada against Deep Capture and affiliated entities.
November. Retailing turmoil. Releases by Amazon and Barnes & Noble unleash the dogs of war, against each other and Apple, in the retail market for tablet computers.
December. Fiscal policy. France and Germany develop an ambitious joint plan to turn the eurozone -- or perhaps the whole of the EU -- into a fiscal union. Cameron, for the Brits, keeps his distance.
Yes, there is a hometown bias to this compilation. Seven of the twelve top stories are North American in character, six of those are US based. The five that one might attribute to the rest of the world are divided among western Asia (two), eastern Asia (one), and Europe (two).
I have no proposals as to what you might make of that.
Happy new year, everyone.
By "stories," I don't mean themes, such as "Digital Revolution" or "EU unraveling." I mean stories, such as one might have seen in a particular newspaper on some specific day. Of course, I choose the ones I do largely because they illustrate an important theme, and in the list below (an innovation this year) I'll spell out and italicize the theme. Yet the theme itself isn't the story.
Further, I don't rank them, as in a top ten list. I assign one top story to each of the twelve months.
All that said, here is this year's list.
January: Isolating Iran. After the Central Bank of India, under pressure, withdraws from the Asian Clearing Union (which had been a crucial conduit for payments to Iran for petroleum), Indian companies that import oil from Iran scramble to find another way to send their payments and keep the flow going. Their substitute arrangement involved payments through the Hamburg, Germany based EIH Bank. The isolation of Iran would become a bigger theme for many industrialized nations later in the year, but we may as well use this as the kick-off.
February: food versus fuel. The US Department of Agriculture announces deregulation of one strain of genetically modified corn -- a strain designed for use as ethanol, the gasoline substitute. This announcement feeds into several ongoing stories -- one of them is the widening perception of the failure of ethanol (at least the traditional "first generation" sort) as an instrument of policy.
March: Banking for the poor. The central bank in Bengaldesh dials up the conflict over microfinance, ordering that the Grameen Bank cut its ties with its founder, Yunus. Arguments in that country's high court Monday, March 7.
April: Nuclear power. Continuing crisis at Japan's Fukushima I nuclear power plant forces advocates of nuclear power generation world-wide onto the defensive. On April 11, Japan's Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency rated the disaster as a "major accident" or a level 7 event on an internationally recognized scale.
May: Exchange consolidation. Nymex OMX Group and the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) withdraw their hostile bid for NYSE Euronext, apparently leaving a clear path for NYSE's friendly merger with Deutsche Boerse.
June: Political scandal. Oops. Time reporter Michael Grunwald writes this month, "reports of Solyndra's death have been greatly exaggerated." But they weren't. The company, an Obama administrration favorite, would file for bankruptcy two months later.
July: Digital revolution. Bankruptcy of famed bookstore chain Borders turns into a liquidation proceeding as re-org plans fall apart. Bricks-and-mortars retailing takes another in a series of hits.
August. Fiscal policy. US Congress and President seek to resolve long-running debt-ceiling soap opera. S&P downgrade of US Treasury debt. End up just perpetuating the soap opera.
September: Banking. UBS Rogue trader Kweku Adoboli arrested, September 15, 3:30 AM London time.
October: Allegations of naked-shorting conspiracy and pushback. Ali Nazerali brings a libel suit in Canada against Deep Capture and affiliated entities.
November. Retailing turmoil. Releases by Amazon and Barnes & Noble unleash the dogs of war, against each other and Apple, in the retail market for tablet computers.
December. Fiscal policy. France and Germany develop an ambitious joint plan to turn the eurozone -- or perhaps the whole of the EU -- into a fiscal union. Cameron, for the Brits, keeps his distance.
Yes, there is a hometown bias to this compilation. Seven of the twelve top stories are North American in character, six of those are US based. The five that one might attribute to the rest of the world are divided among western Asia (two), eastern Asia (one), and Europe (two).
I have no proposals as to what you might make of that.
Happy new year, everyone.
23 December 2011
The Melodrama of the Rupee
In Oscar Wilde's "The Importance of Being Earnest," Miss Prism tells Cecily, "you will read your Political Economy in my absence. The chapter on the fall of the Rupee you may omit. It is somewhat too sensational. Even these metallic problems have their melodramatic side."
Wilde's humorous intentions notwithstanding, the rupee is now providing the world with some melodrama. As Shubha Ganesh of The Economic Times wrote last weekend, rupee depreciation has become a pressing concern of the government there "as a weak currency is expected to impact the domestic treasury as India meets 80 percent of its energy needs with imports."
Private companies in India, notably Reliance Communications (RCOM) a huge telecomm concern, have a lot of bonds reaching maturity in 2012, many of them foreign currency convertible. As another story this week in The Economic Times noted, "the timing could hardly look any worse."
A company that has issued, say, $1 billion in FCCBs is committed to pay the rupee equivalent of $1 billion US dollars when the bonds reach maturity. That is surely a key reason why the bondholders bought that sort of bond, why they've proven so easily marketable, after all: FCCBs let the buyers hedge themselves against any melodramatic fall of the rupee at the expense of the issuer.
If a major Indian company could find itself incapable of meeting those obligations -- well, we are all familiar with the ways of corporate metaphorical dominoes these days.
Yes, Cecily, this could get a bit too sensational.
Wilde's humorous intentions notwithstanding, the rupee is now providing the world with some melodrama. As Shubha Ganesh of The Economic Times wrote last weekend, rupee depreciation has become a pressing concern of the government there "as a weak currency is expected to impact the domestic treasury as India meets 80 percent of its energy needs with imports."
Private companies in India, notably Reliance Communications (RCOM) a huge telecomm concern, have a lot of bonds reaching maturity in 2012, many of them foreign currency convertible. As another story this week in The Economic Times noted, "the timing could hardly look any worse."
A company that has issued, say, $1 billion in FCCBs is committed to pay the rupee equivalent of $1 billion US dollars when the bonds reach maturity. That is surely a key reason why the bondholders bought that sort of bond, why they've proven so easily marketable, after all: FCCBs let the buyers hedge themselves against any melodramatic fall of the rupee at the expense of the issuer.
If a major Indian company could find itself incapable of meeting those obligations -- well, we are all familiar with the ways of corporate metaphorical dominoes these days.
Yes, Cecily, this could get a bit too sensational.
29 July 2011
Bradman and Sachin
Amidst some random surfing (yes, it is random when I do it) I encountered some efforts at humor about cricket. A sport I know absolutely nothing about. Several of the jokes involved people named Bradman and/or Sachin.
Sachin turns out to be an Indian cricketer, full name Sachin Tendulkar, described somewhere as "the first and the only player in Test Cricket history to score fifty centuries, and the first to score fifty centuries in all international cricket combined." Don't ask me for an explanation of that.
Bradman? Sir Donald, if you please. He passed away in 2001, but he was an Australian legend. The Aussies think he was the greatest cricketer ever. At his height, in 1931, a London paper said, "It is almost time to request a legal limit on the number of runs Bradman should be allowed to make."
And he wasn't even named Bruce.
If you have an Aussie and an Indian in the same room, and you want to get a lively conversation underway, ask them whether Sachin is greater than Bradman. There is at least one facebook page devoted to that question.
Anyway, here is one of the corny jokes arising out of this intergenerational/international comparison.
Sachin one day said: "God has sent me to teach the world how to play cricket."
Bradman replied: "That's a mistake. I didn't send anyone!"
Sachin turns out to be an Indian cricketer, full name Sachin Tendulkar, described somewhere as "the first and the only player in Test Cricket history to score fifty centuries, and the first to score fifty centuries in all international cricket combined." Don't ask me for an explanation of that.
Bradman? Sir Donald, if you please. He passed away in 2001, but he was an Australian legend. The Aussies think he was the greatest cricketer ever. At his height, in 1931, a London paper said, "It is almost time to request a legal limit on the number of runs Bradman should be allowed to make."
And he wasn't even named Bruce.
If you have an Aussie and an Indian in the same room, and you want to get a lively conversation underway, ask them whether Sachin is greater than Bradman. There is at least one facebook page devoted to that question.
Anyway, here is one of the corny jokes arising out of this intergenerational/international comparison.
Sachin one day said: "God has sent me to teach the world how to play cricket."
Bradman replied: "That's a mistake. I didn't send anyone!"
07 January 2011
The Oxymandias meme
Most reasonably well-educated people whose native language is English, a category that I'm sure includes my readership, have encountered Shelley's poem Ozymandias. Here are a few lines to jog your memory:
"Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desert. Near them on the sand,
Half sunk, a shattered visage lies, whose frown
And wrinkled lip and sneer of cold command
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read...."
The poem ends with two discordant observations: first, that the owner of that wrinkled lip, Ozymandias, thought his works immortal: "look on my works," he confidently declares, to his posterity.
The second observation, of course, is that his works proved mortal indeed, buried now under "lone and level sands" around that ruin of a statue.
The poem is a powerful expression of a meme -- the notion that a deserved obscurity awaits precisely the egotist who boasts about his legacy.
As I mentioned yesterday, I have of late been reading the collected poems of Robert Graves, and it struck me that the Ozymandias meme plays a rather large part in his poetic armory.
One of his poems is called "The General Elliot," and it describes a hero of that name, whose visage is painted on a sign above a tavern, presumably here. The name is probably a reference to Gilbert Elliot-Murray-Kynynmound, 1st Earl of Minto, who was the Governor-General of India between 1807 and 1813.
The gibe in Graves' poem is the same in Shelley's: Yes, you were a big wheel in your day, but no one knows who you are now, or in what wars you gained distinction.
He fell in victory's fierce pursuit,
Holed through and through with shot....
The potman cannot well recall,
The ostler never knew,
Whether that day was Malplaquet,
The Boyne, or Waterloo.
The eighth and final verse reads:
And paint shall keep his buttons bright
Though all the world's forgot
Whether he died for England's pride
By battle or by pot.
If the reference is, as I suspect, to the Governor-General, let it be said that he died at home, in England, in 1814, a year after leaving his Indian post, (about a year before the Battle of Waterloo, a century after the battle of Malplaquet, and more than 120 years after the battle of The Boyne.)
Another poem in this collection, titled simply "Vanity," states the Oxymandias meme more baldly. Indeed, this one may be faulted for violating the cardinal rule "show don't tell." Though it shows us an apparently supernatural toad who "dreams away the past," its interest is in telling us what this toad knows.
Which is "that certitude at last/Must melt away in vanity --/ No gate is fast, no door is fast."
The Eliot poem is rather gimmicky, though in its way moving. "Vanity" is flat. But there is another poem that displays the same meme with great power, and of that I will write in tomorrow's entry.
"Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desert. Near them on the sand,
Half sunk, a shattered visage lies, whose frown
And wrinkled lip and sneer of cold command
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read...."
The poem ends with two discordant observations: first, that the owner of that wrinkled lip, Ozymandias, thought his works immortal: "look on my works," he confidently declares, to his posterity.
The second observation, of course, is that his works proved mortal indeed, buried now under "lone and level sands" around that ruin of a statue.
The poem is a powerful expression of a meme -- the notion that a deserved obscurity awaits precisely the egotist who boasts about his legacy.
As I mentioned yesterday, I have of late been reading the collected poems of Robert Graves, and it struck me that the Ozymandias meme plays a rather large part in his poetic armory.
One of his poems is called "The General Elliot," and it describes a hero of that name, whose visage is painted on a sign above a tavern, presumably here. The name is probably a reference to Gilbert Elliot-Murray-Kynynmound, 1st Earl of Minto, who was the Governor-General of India between 1807 and 1813.
The gibe in Graves' poem is the same in Shelley's: Yes, you were a big wheel in your day, but no one knows who you are now, or in what wars you gained distinction.
He fell in victory's fierce pursuit,
Holed through and through with shot....
The potman cannot well recall,
The ostler never knew,
Whether that day was Malplaquet,
The Boyne, or Waterloo.
The eighth and final verse reads:
And paint shall keep his buttons bright
Though all the world's forgot
Whether he died for England's pride
By battle or by pot.
If the reference is, as I suspect, to the Governor-General, let it be said that he died at home, in England, in 1814, a year after leaving his Indian post, (about a year before the Battle of Waterloo, a century after the battle of Malplaquet, and more than 120 years after the battle of The Boyne.)
Another poem in this collection, titled simply "Vanity," states the Oxymandias meme more baldly. Indeed, this one may be faulted for violating the cardinal rule "show don't tell." Though it shows us an apparently supernatural toad who "dreams away the past," its interest is in telling us what this toad knows.
Which is "that certitude at last/Must melt away in vanity --/ No gate is fast, no door is fast."
The Eliot poem is rather gimmicky, though in its way moving. "Vanity" is flat. But there is another poem that displays the same meme with great power, and of that I will write in tomorrow's entry.
27 February 2009
Last Sunday's Oscar presentations
Best Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Actor: Sean Penn, Milk
Best Actress: Kate Winslet, The Reader
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Best Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona.
Five different films honored in the five focal awards. I was just about to write, "that does not usually happen.'
But then I checked into it. (Checking one's presumptions before declaring them as fact. What a concept.)
Actually, this five-way even split among the top awards doesn't seem all that unusual. Last year's winner for Best Picture won only one of the other major awards. The Best Pic was "No Country for Old Men," and Javier Bardem won for supporting actor there.
But the other three biggies last year were split among three very different movies. The best lead actor last year came from "There will be blood." The best lead actress came from La Mome, a biopic on Edith Piaf. And the 2007 Best Supporting Actress ... Tilda Swinton, from "Michael Clayton."
If we go back another year, to the 2006 awards (in February 2007) we get another situation in which the five biggies involve five different movies.
So it isn't all that unusual, though some years some major cultural phenomenon does seem to sweep all before it. Like "Million Dollar Baby," when it won three of the top five of 2005.
Anyway, last Sunday, Slumdog came away as THE winner of the evening. In addition to Best Pic, it won for best song, best original score, best film editing, best sound mixing, best cinematography, and best adapted screenplay.
Everybody seems to be happy about this, and certainly noone could be unhappy with the young boy and girl from Mumbai. They looked thrilled and not-quite overwhelmed. And soooo cute.
Okay, I'm a sentimental fool.
Best Actor: Sean Penn, Milk
Best Actress: Kate Winslet, The Reader
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Best Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona.
Five different films honored in the five focal awards. I was just about to write, "that does not usually happen.'
But then I checked into it. (Checking one's presumptions before declaring them as fact. What a concept.)
Actually, this five-way even split among the top awards doesn't seem all that unusual. Last year's winner for Best Picture won only one of the other major awards. The Best Pic was "No Country for Old Men," and Javier Bardem won for supporting actor there.
But the other three biggies last year were split among three very different movies. The best lead actor last year came from "There will be blood." The best lead actress came from La Mome, a biopic on Edith Piaf. And the 2007 Best Supporting Actress ... Tilda Swinton, from "Michael Clayton."
If we go back another year, to the 2006 awards (in February 2007) we get another situation in which the five biggies involve five different movies.
So it isn't all that unusual, though some years some major cultural phenomenon does seem to sweep all before it. Like "Million Dollar Baby," when it won three of the top five of 2005.
Anyway, last Sunday, Slumdog came away as THE winner of the evening. In addition to Best Pic, it won for best song, best original score, best film editing, best sound mixing, best cinematography, and best adapted screenplay.
Everybody seems to be happy about this, and certainly noone could be unhappy with the young boy and girl from Mumbai. They looked thrilled and not-quite overwhelmed. And soooo cute.
Okay, I'm a sentimental fool.
06 December 2008
A Passage to India
Inspired by a recent viewing of the classic movie A Passage to India on a DVD, I decided to get a hold of the famous novel.
I'm reading through Forster's classic now, with great delight.
There's a thoughtful bit early on that involves two missionaries, Church of England presumably, and their debates with one another about the theological consequences of evolution. Or ... I think that's what it's about. Tell me if I'm wrong.
The missionaries, Graysford and Sorley by name, didn't make it into the movie at all (unless there's a bit I've forgotten already). They are present in the book so far as I can tell not as plot elements but as pieces of scenery -- local color. And here's the passage by which I'm intrigued:
Not one shall be turned away by the servants on that verandah [of "our Father's house"], be he black or white, not one shall be kept standing who approaches with a loving heart. And why should the divine hospitality cease here? Consider, with all reverence, the monkeys. May there not be a mansion for the monkeys also? Old Mr. Graysford said No but young Mr. Sorley, who was advanced, said Yes; he saw no reason why monkeys should not have their collateral share of bliss, and he had sympathetic discussions about them with his Hindu friends. And the jackals? Jackals were indeed less to Mr sorley's mind but he admitted that the mercy of God, being infinite, may well embrace all mammals. And the wasps? He became uneasy during the descent to wasps, aand was apt to change the conversation. And oranges, cactuses, crystals and mud? and the bacteria inside Mr Sorley? No, no, this is going too far. We must exclude someone from our gathering, or we shall be left with nothing.
Now there's a fascinating slide down the Great Chain of Being!
I'm reading through Forster's classic now, with great delight.
There's a thoughtful bit early on that involves two missionaries, Church of England presumably, and their debates with one another about the theological consequences of evolution. Or ... I think that's what it's about. Tell me if I'm wrong.
The missionaries, Graysford and Sorley by name, didn't make it into the movie at all (unless there's a bit I've forgotten already). They are present in the book so far as I can tell not as plot elements but as pieces of scenery -- local color. And here's the passage by which I'm intrigued:
Not one shall be turned away by the servants on that verandah [of "our Father's house"], be he black or white, not one shall be kept standing who approaches with a loving heart. And why should the divine hospitality cease here? Consider, with all reverence, the monkeys. May there not be a mansion for the monkeys also? Old Mr. Graysford said No but young Mr. Sorley, who was advanced, said Yes; he saw no reason why monkeys should not have their collateral share of bliss, and he had sympathetic discussions about them with his Hindu friends. And the jackals? Jackals were indeed less to Mr sorley's mind but he admitted that the mercy of God, being infinite, may well embrace all mammals. And the wasps? He became uneasy during the descent to wasps, aand was apt to change the conversation. And oranges, cactuses, crystals and mud? and the bacteria inside Mr Sorley? No, no, this is going too far. We must exclude someone from our gathering, or we shall be left with nothing.
Now there's a fascinating slide down the Great Chain of Being!
18 November 2007
Hurrah for Bollywood
At a time of emergency rule in Pakistan, when the military can't do anything about the Taliban but it can lock up lawyers and independently-minded judges at will ... the brightest ray of hope may come from Bollywood, the renowned film industry of the giant and often adversarial nation to Pakistan's south.
A new movie, called "Goal" (which is, as you might guess from the title, about soccer/aka football) is the first Bollywood movie to be exhibited in Pakistan since 1965.
Bread and circuses? Is this a case of a Caesar trying to keep the people content with entertainment?
It's possible to see it cynically. But the lifting of the ban on Bolywood movies is also inevitably an opening of the nation to influences from the south, and the lessening of an enmity between two nations that are both now nuclear.
Its a good thing. Praise Allah. And Vishnu.
A new movie, called "Goal" (which is, as you might guess from the title, about soccer/aka football) is the first Bollywood movie to be exhibited in Pakistan since 1965.
Bread and circuses? Is this a case of a Caesar trying to keep the people content with entertainment?
It's possible to see it cynically. But the lifting of the ban on Bolywood movies is also inevitably an opening of the nation to influences from the south, and the lessening of an enmity between two nations that are both now nuclear.
Its a good thing. Praise Allah. And Vishnu.
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