Showing posts with label Mitt Romney. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mitt Romney. Show all posts

27 April 2012

Mad Men

I've been catching up with the television series Mad Men.

Regular readers of this blog are of course aware that I’m a fan. Not-so-regular readers can become aware in detail easily enough:  here.
The first episode of the new series (formally known as episodes 1 + 2, I gather, though it was seamless dramatically) drew a lot of attention for Megan Draper’s (actress Jessica Paré’s) rendition of Zou Bisou Bisou (“shoo kiss kiss” according to a quick cheap net translation).  Here’s a link courtesy of YouTube.  And certainly that’s attention getting.

But an equally fascinating subplot involved the fantasy life of Lane Pryce. To review: Lane Pryce is the fellow sent to America by the Brits, Puttnam Powell and Lowe, when PP&L briefly owned the ‘old’ Sterling Cooper, to ride herd over these unreliable Americans. He took part in the shenanigans that helped create a newly independent ad agency, and for his help became a partner in what has since been Sterling Cooper Draper and Pryce.

We’ve known, or at least been given opportunity to sense, for some time already that Pryce has an inhibited and potentially troublesome sexuality. This episode seemed to bring that to a new level.

Pryce finds an abandoned wallet in a taxicab, and becomes infatuated with a woman in a photograph there. There’s also a lot of money in the wallet – Lane, a man of honor in all matters financial, returns the wallet with all the cash intact to its proper owner: a Mr. Polito. It’s a lot of cash, and Polito may be some sort of mobbed-up big shot.  Pryce has, though, pocketed the photo of the gal that both he and Polito now in a manner share: Delores.
In a brief telephone conversation, Dolores seems open at least to some flirtation with Pryce.
I’m not really taking any huge leap here when I say I smell trouble.  


Episode 3 is Betty-centric, and gives us a chance to catch up with Betty and her new husband, Henry Francis. Betty is wonderfully portrayed by January Jones, as a woman facing weight gain and, as the show develops, fears that something much worse is behind it.

The writers use Henry Francis to comment on contemporary (2012) politics.  After all, it is now certain (as certain as such things can be) that the Republicans will this summer nominate Mitt Romney for the office of President of the United States. Mitt is the son of George Romney, who was a rather big wheel in the Mad Men era.
In the summer of 1966, when George Romney was Governor of Michigan, and the former CEO of American Motors. He was widely considered serious presidential timber (a status he would eventually – in 1967 -- forfeit with an ill considered remark about how he had been “brainwashed.”) Romney was also seen as the heir to Nelson Rockefeller as the moderate/liberal Republican most prominent in the presidential sweepstakes. After a loss to Barry Goldwater in the 1964 Republican convention, Rocky seems to have lost interest in presidential contention and in effect he was thereafter a supporter of Romney’s own jockeying in 1966.
So much for reality: what about the fictive world? Henry Francis was an aide to Nelson Rockefeller when his relationship with Betty Draper began. He has left Rocky’s employ, and is now working for the Mayor of New York City, John Lindsay. So Francis is making a career for himself on the leftward end of the viable intra-party spectrum within the GOP. Francis is exactly the sort of person most likely to have been an enthusiast of George Romney at this time.
It is startling, then, to see Francis briefly on the phone, apparently with somebody who works for Gov. Romney. Francis is refusing an offer of a joint Lindsay/Romney photo op because, he says, “Romney is a clown.”
You can see a clip here.
I have no reason to argue with the opinion that Mitt Romney is a clown. But George Romney was not especially clownish, certainly not from the perspective of a Henry Francis. Nor was he clownish from the perspective of electoral success – that November he would win re-election by an impressive margin. I think it odd and unfortunate that the writers of Mad Men would let 2012 exert a sort of backward causation into their plot in this way.
Still … the show makes us think. And I enjoyed both (all three!) of these episodes.


02 February 2012

Steamroller Repair

Mitt Romney proved this week that he has repaired his steamroller, the one that suffered a minor break-down in South Carolina.

I now see no likelihood of anyone other than Romney getting the Republican nomination, though Newt can keep it entertaining in the meantime.

That still doesn't tell us how the end of this political year is going to go.

On another, but not an unrelated point, I was talking recently with bright finance-industry people in east Asia. They said two things.  First (my paraphrase), some of them say: buy Samsung. The year 2012 is shaping up as a good one for Korean industry in general and for that company in particular. (By the way, if you actually are stupid enough to buy Samsung based on hearsay in this or any a blog ... just please don't. Stick with broad-based indexes, some of which can get you exposure to east Asia in general.)

The second thing I've taken away from these recent conversations is more intriguing, and more worth passing on to you, dear reader. Some of them believe that there has been too much emphasis on the part of certain analysts, in London and New York, about how China is going down for a "hard landing." My sources believe there will be some contraction in the PRC, but it will be rather soft, as landings go.

I don't know whether that's true. Surely the PRC seems to be due for some sort of landing, and indeed a contraction is underway.  If my friends were kidding themselves, wacky optimists as they may be, and it really is a hard landing, a bursting of a Sino-bubble on the way, then this could have macro global implications.

Which brings us back to the politics of this campaign.  We could be hearing an awful lot about China before November.

14 January 2012

Romney Steamroller

My best guess at present is that the Romney steamroller, working at full power since its victory in New Hampshire,  will likely end the nomination fight fairly soon. Any kind of win in South Carolina on Tuesday ends the matter.

We will then have to see whether there is any sizeable number of anti-Romneyites who are willing to leave the party rather than get behind him. I have participated in on-line message boards in which some fervent anti-Romney types are threatening such a bolt. (Yes, it is shocking how I fritter time away.) I've seen enough of it to raise a question in my mind. If Santorum or someone of equal or greater prominence lets such a 3d party use him as its figurehead -- things look good for Obama.

That means, in terms of my "long-cycle versus short cycle" dilemma, explained here, that the "long cycle" has trumped the short. If Obama gets a second term, things will change in a very big way in coming years, whatever happens to the composition of Congress. We will be a very different country four years from now than we have been before.

If (1) the Romney steamroller works its way in terms of the nominating fight, and (2) there doesn't emerge any significant intra-party split as a result ... I will be left in uncertainty. A one-on-one Romney/Obama contest may well be decided by factors we don't know anything about yet, by events that will take place between now and November. But if it is decided by such contingencies, that would mean -- heaven forbid -- that we'd have to do without the whole idea of long-term predictive cycles.

02 February 2008

Thoughts on the campaign

These absurdly front-loaded primaries have had their winnowing effect.

To the extent there can be any real justification for the existing primary-election calender, I suppose it is this: the parties don't want a long bruising knock-down drag-out fight over who their nominess is going to be, akin to Ford/Reagan in 1976.
When there is a dispute, the party elders (in each of the majors) want it settled quickly, then they can rally around the choice and get down to the task of knocking the other party.

If that is the telos for this process, then the elders seem likely to get their wish. The nominations might be pretty much settled this week.

On the Republican side, due to the winner-take-all nature of several of Tuesday's events, it is very likely that either McCain or Romney will emerge not just as the front-runner but as the nominee presumptive. By the way, four of the winner-take-all races are northeastern states: New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Delaware. This is why Giuliani's strategy wasn't as crazy as it seemed. He banked everything on the support of northeastern retiree snowbirds in Florida, in the hope that a strong showing there could give him some "Big Mo" going into this week, and allow him to focus on those four states, his 'back yard.' (It didn't work, but that doesn't imply it was an irrational plan.)

On the Democratic side, the lovey-dovey nature of the latest debate between Clinton and Obama indicates that they both suspect their upcoming primaries are going to decide the matter, they both know that it is possible the other guy/gal will become the presumptive nominee this coming week, and each is positioning him/herself for the "healing process."

But of course on the Dem side things aren't winner-take-all. I don't believe they have ANY primaries with that sort of rule. So its perfectly possible that we still won't know where we stand Wednesday. In that case, things could get nastier quickly.

No matter how things play out, I wouldn't expect a "dream ticket" out of the Dem convention. People who are talking up a Clinton/Obama ticket, or Obama/Clinton, are just trying to fill out their assigned column inches.

13 August 2007

Mike Huckabee

The old primary season in Presidential politics is dead. There was a time when casual readers of newspapers started following the campaign as the New Hampshire primary neared in February, and for a series of Tuesdays, lasting sometimes into June, the field of pretenders in each party, or at least the one without an incumbent, would be gradually winnowed to one nominee presumptive.

That's all dead because everybody wanted to be first. The primaries now will all take place at essentially the same time, which of course eliminates any winnowing value. The winnowing will take place before hand.

This, in turn, has meant that key events in our electoral calender are taking place now, and that the Ames straw poll among Republicans this weekend was one of them. I regret this everlasting-campaign, but I have no suggestion as to what to do about it.

Giuliani, McCain, and Fred Thompson sat this one out, though they each received some votes anyway. For the record, among the three well-known non-participants, the "winner" was Mr. Thompson, with 1.4% of the votes cast, or 203 votes.

Over-all, of course, the winner without quotation marks was Mitt Romney, with 31.6%, which is roughly what George W. Bush received eight years ago. But Romney's showing was no surprise, and it's the element of surprise that makes news.

The news coming out of Ames, accordingly, is the second-place showing of Mike Huckabee, with 18.1%. Here are all the numbers, with some analysis about the new hierarchy, if you will, or pecking order, this has established:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/thenation/20070813/cm_thenation/45222461

Knowledge is warranted belief -- it is the body of belief that we build up because, while living in this world, we've developed good reasons for believing it. What we know, then, is what works -- and it is, necessarily, what has worked for us, each of us individually, as a first approximation. For my other blog, on the struggles for control in the corporate suites, see www.proxypartisans.blogspot.com.