24 October 2009

Fooled by Foreshortening

In some of my earlier posts, I've discussed the plot of a Ben Mezrich book, UGLY AMERICANS.

I got some important chronological points wrong, and I'd like to correct that now. Indeed, I've corrected it in my plot summary thus.

I've had a lot of trouble cross-referencing the events in the book with real-world events, and to some extent I at last understand why. Bear with me.

Mezrich tells the "true story of the Ivy League Cowboys who raided the Asian Markets for Millions." The central "cowboy" is the fellow he calls John Malcolm, who went to Japan to take a job with Kidder Peabody, apparently in 1993, then lost that job when the Joseph Jett scandal hit, the following year.

Then Malcolm got a job placing orders for Nick Leeson, which ended in February 1995.

Thereafter, Malcom called his former boss at Kidder Peabody, who was now the head of a hedge fund. The main story of the book starts there. Until now, I had believed that these central plotting events, involving the Hong Kong stock exchange's tracking fund, took place in 1995, soon after Malcolm had settled into his new job. That is the impression the book conveys. But the tracking fund at issue didn't exist then! It came into existence as a result of the East Asia currency crises of 1997-98.

But on a closer reading, I see that the story can be reconciled to that fact, and Mezrich can't be said to have simply gotten it wrong, foreshortened though his account is. At least part of the blame is mine.

There is a time clue on page 196 of his book, where Mezrich writes: "The brainchild of Richard Li, at thirty-five one of China's richest and most infamous characters, Pacific Century Cyberworks has started off...."

When was Li thirty five?

The answer is that he would have turned that age in November of 2001. This means that the Christmas party described in chapter 21 of the book, when the main characters discuss Richard Li, must have taken place in December 2001. That, in turn, makes the foollowing trades consistent with the actual existence of this fund, and with a merger in which Pacific Century Cyberworks was involved at the turn of the millennium.

"Understanding comes step by step, grasshopper."

"Thank you, Master."

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

You have to express more your opinion to attract more readers, because just a video or plain text without any personal approach is not that valuable. But it is just form my point of view

Christopher said...

Dear Anon,

I do express opinions here of course. And I do so in my own name, not anonymously (hint.)

I admit there are some posts that take a just-the-facts-ma'am attitude, but even there the opinion is implicit.

"These facts are important to me; important enough for me to place them here" is the opinion.

Knowledge is warranted belief -- it is the body of belief that we build up because, while living in this world, we've developed good reasons for believing it. What we know, then, is what works -- and it is, necessarily, what has worked for us, each of us individually, as a first approximation. For my other blog, on the struggles for control in the corporate suites, see www.proxypartisans.blogspot.com.