Obama seems finally to have sealed the deal.
Congratulations are due to him, not just on securing the nomination as it appears he has, but on dealing a blow to Clinton family influence in the nation and in its largest political party.
I have to say that I agree entirely with hawkish blogger Andrew Sullivan on one point: there's been far too much talk about how Hillary's persistence in this campaign constitutes admirable grit or determination or whatever. It constitutes nothing admirable.
"One request at least," Sullivan says, "can we retire from the dicourse the notion that there is anything even faintly admirable about the Clintons' refusal to accept that they have lost the nomination. This isn't tenacity or pluck or spunk. It's vindictive, sore-loser narcissism. And someone senior in the party needs to call it like it is."
She has been saying, in effect, that if she can't have the nomination she will at least render it valueless.
I suggest dropping out of the electoral system. That's the anarcho-capitalist way. Still, I admit that the Clinton crowd turns my stomach in a uniquely knotted manner.
10 May 2008
09 May 2008
A Japanese story
Apparently, there was this samarai who wanted to buy a splendid suit of armor. It would be expensive, though, and he didn't have a large income. So he ate less and less until he could put aside enough money to make the purchase.
A war broke out and our protagonist put on his newly acquired metal plating and headed toward the battlefields. But his body had become so weak from semi-starvation that he could not bear the weight of the armor, and one of the enemies soon cut him down.
A pointless little story ... yes? Well, maybe not. Okita Saburo used to tell that tale. He was an economic planner under Japan's prime minister Yoshida in the 1950s, and his listeners all knew what the story meant.
It meant that Japan should take its MacArthur-imposed Constitution and its disavowal of armed force seriously. Not as a matter of newly discovered pacifist principle but because if Japan gave up the hope of wearing a suit of armor any time soon it could instead feed itself, and develop the sinews of industrial might that our imaginary samarai forfeited so unwisely.
I just thought I'd pass that along. Guns and butter. Not a new subject of contrast, but a perhaps a valuable shift of frame for it.
A war broke out and our protagonist put on his newly acquired metal plating and headed toward the battlefields. But his body had become so weak from semi-starvation that he could not bear the weight of the armor, and one of the enemies soon cut him down.
A pointless little story ... yes? Well, maybe not. Okita Saburo used to tell that tale. He was an economic planner under Japan's prime minister Yoshida in the 1950s, and his listeners all knew what the story meant.
It meant that Japan should take its MacArthur-imposed Constitution and its disavowal of armed force seriously. Not as a matter of newly discovered pacifist principle but because if Japan gave up the hope of wearing a suit of armor any time soon it could instead feed itself, and develop the sinews of industrial might that our imaginary samarai forfeited so unwisely.
I just thought I'd pass that along. Guns and butter. Not a new subject of contrast, but a perhaps a valuable shift of frame for it.
08 May 2008
William James
Here's a passage I like from one of the better-known of James' essays: The Dilemma of Determinism.
James has at this point established what he means by "indeterminism," in contradiction to both the hard and the soft forms of determinism.
But, he asks, is indeterminism compatible with theism? If we are the creatures of an all-knowing Creator, then the knowledge of that creator of what we will do next Tuesday surely implies that on next Tuesday we will do something now already determined, doesn't it?
James replies:
"Suppose two men before a chessboard, -- the one a novice, the other an expert player of the game. The expert intends to beat. But he cannot foresee exactly what any one move of his adversary may be. He knows, however, all the possible moves of the latter; and he knows in advance how to meet each of them by a move of his own which leads in the direction of victory. And the victory infallibly arrives, after no matter how devious a course, in the one predestined form of check-mate to the novice's king."
Likewise, then, even an infinitely powerful mind could be working through time and despite indeterminist elements in a situation to achieve that Mind's end.
In a footnote, he acknowledges that this (the sort of idea that long after James' death became known as "process theology") may well be considered heterodox.
"This of course leaves the creative mind subject to the law of time. And to any one who insists on the timelessness of that mind I have no reply to make....To say that time is an illusory appearance is only a roundabout manner of saying that there is no real plurality, and that the frame of things is an absolute unit. Admit plurality, and time may be its form."
James has at this point established what he means by "indeterminism," in contradiction to both the hard and the soft forms of determinism.
But, he asks, is indeterminism compatible with theism? If we are the creatures of an all-knowing Creator, then the knowledge of that creator of what we will do next Tuesday surely implies that on next Tuesday we will do something now already determined, doesn't it?
James replies:
"Suppose two men before a chessboard, -- the one a novice, the other an expert player of the game. The expert intends to beat. But he cannot foresee exactly what any one move of his adversary may be. He knows, however, all the possible moves of the latter; and he knows in advance how to meet each of them by a move of his own which leads in the direction of victory. And the victory infallibly arrives, after no matter how devious a course, in the one predestined form of check-mate to the novice's king."
Likewise, then, even an infinitely powerful mind could be working through time and despite indeterminist elements in a situation to achieve that Mind's end.
In a footnote, he acknowledges that this (the sort of idea that long after James' death became known as "process theology") may well be considered heterodox.
"This of course leaves the creative mind subject to the law of time. And to any one who insists on the timelessness of that mind I have no reply to make....To say that time is an illusory appearance is only a roundabout manner of saying that there is no real plurality, and that the frame of things is an absolute unit. Admit plurality, and time may be its form."
04 May 2008
Development and the Tibet Riots
This is a passage from the latest issue of "Robert Hsu's China Strategy," a newsletter for actual or potential investors in that country.
"There is ... wide resentment among the poor Tibetans due to the economic disparity between the elite -- comprised of enterprising Chinese migrants and upper-class Tibetans -- and the impoverished masses. With the billions of dollars that China has flooded into Tibet over the past decade, many upper-class Tibetans and Chinese migrant entrepreneurs prospered greatly. The majority of Tibetans, however, were left out of the economic prosperity.
"The Tibet economy has grown around 12% per year for the past seven years. But due to the region's harsh environment and weak economy, Tibet is still one of the most underdeveloped regions in China."
It sounds like Mr. Hsu is buying the Chinese government's 'line' here. The growth of 12% a year would be a pointless abstraction to most of those "impoverished masses" if they aren't sharing in it.
Also, why has China (meaning, presumably, the government of China) "flooded" those billions of dollars into Tibet, if the "harsh environment" condemns the economy to weakness anyway? Is it a continuing subsidy for the "Chinese migrant entrepreneurs?
I often find Mr. Hsu's newsletter informative (though I don't personally invest in China and don't suggest it unless you really have money you could do without) -- still ... still, I think his discussion of Tibet/China politics leaves much to be desired.
SFAIK, all the real development in China in recent years has taken place along the Pacific coast -- the further from the coast one gets, with Tibet as the limit, the less visible the 21st century itself becomes. If the government is actually putting billions into Tibetan development, it will almost certainly fail, and accordingly to the facts as Mr. Hsu states them IS failing, to achieve any effect other than the enrichment of some of its cronies. Furthermore, logically the money for such a transfer must be coming from the dynamic economies of the coast -- youcan only take wealth from where it is. So the 'development' plans might be killing the proverbial goose.
'Tis ever thus.
"There is ... wide resentment among the poor Tibetans due to the economic disparity between the elite -- comprised of enterprising Chinese migrants and upper-class Tibetans -- and the impoverished masses. With the billions of dollars that China has flooded into Tibet over the past decade, many upper-class Tibetans and Chinese migrant entrepreneurs prospered greatly. The majority of Tibetans, however, were left out of the economic prosperity.
"The Tibet economy has grown around 12% per year for the past seven years. But due to the region's harsh environment and weak economy, Tibet is still one of the most underdeveloped regions in China."
It sounds like Mr. Hsu is buying the Chinese government's 'line' here. The growth of 12% a year would be a pointless abstraction to most of those "impoverished masses" if they aren't sharing in it.
Also, why has China (meaning, presumably, the government of China) "flooded" those billions of dollars into Tibet, if the "harsh environment" condemns the economy to weakness anyway? Is it a continuing subsidy for the "Chinese migrant entrepreneurs?
I often find Mr. Hsu's newsletter informative (though I don't personally invest in China and don't suggest it unless you really have money you could do without) -- still ... still, I think his discussion of Tibet/China politics leaves much to be desired.
SFAIK, all the real development in China in recent years has taken place along the Pacific coast -- the further from the coast one gets, with Tibet as the limit, the less visible the 21st century itself becomes. If the government is actually putting billions into Tibetan development, it will almost certainly fail, and accordingly to the facts as Mr. Hsu states them IS failing, to achieve any effect other than the enrichment of some of its cronies. Furthermore, logically the money for such a transfer must be coming from the dynamic economies of the coast -- youcan only take wealth from where it is. So the 'development' plans might be killing the proverbial goose.
'Tis ever thus.
03 May 2008
The Path of the Olympic Torch
Here, just in case you're wondering, is a selective chronology of the Olympic torch's meandering progress toward Beijing.
March 24, the lighting ceremony in Greece, followed by six days of relays within that country, before the torch bearer flies to Russia. The final day's events have to be cut short due to Tibet-related protests.
April 6, Britain. The first major disruption as the flame is passing through London. Bobbies make 37 arrests.
April 9, the US. Authorities make a last-minute change in the route through San Francisco (the only US city visited) in order to confuse protestors.
April 10, The president of the IOC dismisses suggestions that the relay be curtailed.
April 13, Tanzania, The only stop on the continent of Africa. Itinerary takes torch through the capital city, Dar es Salaam. No incidents.
April 17, India. At least 170 Tibetan monks are arrested near the relay route in New Delhi.
April 22, Indonesia. The torch paraded at an invitation-only event in Jakarta held under very heavy security. It sputters out and has to be re-lit.
April 26, Japan. There are scuffles in the ski-resort town of Nagano, where more than 85,000 people packed the streets, and at least 4 people were injured, despite the presence of 3,000 police.
May 2, China. Flame arrives at the destination country (though there's a good deal of travelling ahead for it.) Hong Kong.
May 3, Macau. (This was yesterday, as I'm typing these words on the other side of the date line from Macau.) No disruptions -- the torch was guarded through Macau by two columns of paramilitary police. Spectators chanting "Go China."
The flame is scheduled to visit Tibet in the middle of June. That may be interesting.
March 24, the lighting ceremony in Greece, followed by six days of relays within that country, before the torch bearer flies to Russia. The final day's events have to be cut short due to Tibet-related protests.
April 6, Britain. The first major disruption as the flame is passing through London. Bobbies make 37 arrests.
April 9, the US. Authorities make a last-minute change in the route through San Francisco (the only US city visited) in order to confuse protestors.
April 10, The president of the IOC dismisses suggestions that the relay be curtailed.
April 13, Tanzania, The only stop on the continent of Africa. Itinerary takes torch through the capital city, Dar es Salaam. No incidents.
April 17, India. At least 170 Tibetan monks are arrested near the relay route in New Delhi.
April 22, Indonesia. The torch paraded at an invitation-only event in Jakarta held under very heavy security. It sputters out and has to be re-lit.
April 26, Japan. There are scuffles in the ski-resort town of Nagano, where more than 85,000 people packed the streets, and at least 4 people were injured, despite the presence of 3,000 police.
May 2, China. Flame arrives at the destination country (though there's a good deal of travelling ahead for it.) Hong Kong.
May 3, Macau. (This was yesterday, as I'm typing these words on the other side of the date line from Macau.) No disruptions -- the torch was guarded through Macau by two columns of paramilitary police. Spectators chanting "Go China."
The flame is scheduled to visit Tibet in the middle of June. That may be interesting.
02 May 2008
Goodbye to Greenberg
Herb Greenberg, a veteran financial journalist, is leaving MarketWatch, the WSJ-affiliated website where he has long had a blog and made a good deal of creative fuss.
I'll miss him, although I understand he will continue to make television appearances in his usual venue, CNBC. Still, this will be one less blog whence I can steal story ideas. The tube just isn't the same. This'll leave me that much more reliant on Felix Salmon, Greg Newton, Ellen Podgor, and other remaining crystals amongst the salts of the earth.
Greenberg is moving on to found, with a friend, a new research firm, which will be known as GreenbergMeritz Research & Analytics. (Way to get first billing on the office door!)
Best of luck to them.
I'll miss him, although I understand he will continue to make television appearances in his usual venue, CNBC. Still, this will be one less blog whence I can steal story ideas. The tube just isn't the same. This'll leave me that much more reliant on Felix Salmon, Greg Newton, Ellen Podgor, and other remaining crystals amongst the salts of the earth.
Greenberg is moving on to found, with a friend, a new research firm, which will be known as GreenbergMeritz Research & Analytics. (Way to get first billing on the office door!)
Best of luck to them.
01 May 2008
The Other Boleyn Girl
I saw the movie, "The Other Boleyn Girl," recently.
I enjoy a good period drama now and then, especialy one that draws on the rich materials of English history. I'm also willing to award a lot of latitude to those who take liberties with history. Shakespeare in Love was a great movie, as was The Knight's Tale, though they both took such liberties.
This movie ... sorry. There were some good things in it, but not enough of them.
Natalie Portman as the doomed Anne Boleyn, and Scarlett Johanssen as her sister Mary who lives to tell the tale, are both pretty enough. But the materials demand gravitas, and neither could muster much of that.
The movie's king and the first of its queens, Henry VIII and Katherine of Aragon, played by Eric Bana and Ana Torrent, were the best performers on the screen. Ms Torrent was compelling even though the screenplay didn't make nearly as much use of her as it might have.
But this movie ought to have been a visual feast. Castle exteriors! castle interiors! Kentish countryside! ... we get no sense of any of it.
If you feel any temptation to watch this movie yourself, feel free. But watch A Man for All Seasons (1966), or Anne of the Thousand Days (1969) first, so you'll know what you're missing.
I enjoy a good period drama now and then, especialy one that draws on the rich materials of English history. I'm also willing to award a lot of latitude to those who take liberties with history. Shakespeare in Love was a great movie, as was The Knight's Tale, though they both took such liberties.
This movie ... sorry. There were some good things in it, but not enough of them.
Natalie Portman as the doomed Anne Boleyn, and Scarlett Johanssen as her sister Mary who lives to tell the tale, are both pretty enough. But the materials demand gravitas, and neither could muster much of that.
The movie's king and the first of its queens, Henry VIII and Katherine of Aragon, played by Eric Bana and Ana Torrent, were the best performers on the screen. Ms Torrent was compelling even though the screenplay didn't make nearly as much use of her as it might have.
But this movie ought to have been a visual feast. Castle exteriors! castle interiors! Kentish countryside! ... we get no sense of any of it.
If you feel any temptation to watch this movie yourself, feel free. But watch A Man for All Seasons (1966), or Anne of the Thousand Days (1969) first, so you'll know what you're missing.
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